The Times October 2003 unpublished

THE SECRET GARDEN OF UK STATISTICS

Sir, There is dismay that the estimate of economic growth has been halved. Why the dismay? After all, growth is arrived at by subtracting last year's from this year’s product so producing a number close to zero. Hence a trivial percentage change in the estimate for one of the two source numbers will produce an overwhelming change in the difference.

We suggest it is pointless to base economic policy on such fragile arithmetic. Instead it would be better to look at issues where there is relative certainty. One of those is in transport where there can be no doubt that the rail function could be carried out at one quarter the cost by express coaches and lorries, given the rights of way, while offering 4 times the capacity of the train, cutting fuel consumption by 20-30% and cutting casualty costs by a factor of two.

That would save the nation perhaps £100 billion – enough to have a very significant effect on the economy let alone the value of the many thousands of hectares of derelict railway land and siding which would spring to life, given good road access.

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