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Road safety, speed cameras and speed humps - Appendix

APPENDIX 1 (Data marked * is from Transport Statistics Great Britain and similar).
Table A1. Source data

Year Killed * Serious * KSI * Ratio KSI/K Bn Veh Km * K/bn veh-km KSI/bn veh-km
1964 7820 95000 102820 13.15 152.3 51.3 675.1
1965 7952 98000 105952 13.32 162.7 48.9 651.2
1966 7985 100000 107985 13.52 172.9 46.2 624.6
1967 7319 94000 101319 13.84 180 40.7 562.9
1968 6810 89000 95810 14.07 187.7 36.3 510.4
1974 6883 82000 88883 12.91 229.7 30.0 387.0
1975 6366 77000 83366 13.10 231.7 27.5 359.8
1976 6570 80000 86570 13.18 243.5 27.0 355.5
1977 6614 82000 88614 13.40 246.8 26.8 359.1
1978 6831 83000 89831 13.15 256.5 26.6 350.2
1980 6010 78849 84859 14.12 271.9 22.1 312.1
1981 5846 78259 84105 14.39 276.9 21.1 303.7
1982 5937 79745 85682 14.43 284.5 20.9 301.2
1983 5445 70623 76068 13.97 288.1 18.9 264.0
1984 5599 73059 78658 14.05 303.1 18.5 259.5
1985 5165 70980 76145 14.74 309.7 16.7 245.9
1986 5385 68757 74142 13.77 325.3 16.6 227.9
1987 5125 64293 69418 13.54 350.5 14.6 198.1
1988 5052 63491 68543 13.57 375.5 13.5 182.5
1990 5217 60441 65658 12.59 410.8 12.7 159.8
1994 3650 46540 50190 13.75 421.5 8.7 119.1
1995 3621 45533 49154 13.57 429.7 8.4 114.4
1996 3598 44499 48097 13.37 441.1 8.2 109.0
1997 3599 42984 46583 12.94 450.3 8.0 103.4
1998 3421 40834 44255 12.94 458.5 7.5 96.5
2000 3409 38155 41564 12.19 467.1 7.3 89.0
2006 3172 28673 31845 10.04 507.5 6.3 62.7
2007 2943 27777 30720 10.44 513 5.7 59.9
Av 5 yrs 1964-68 7577.2 95200 102777.2 13.56 171.12 44.3 600.6
Av 5 yrs 1974-78 6652.8 80800 87452.8 13.15 241.64 27.5 361.9
Av 5 yrs 1980-84 5767.4 76107 81874.4 14.20 284.9 20.2 287.4
Av 5 yrs 1984-88 5265.2 68116 73381.2 13.94 332.82 15.8 220.5
Av 5 yrs 1994-98 3577.8 44078 47655.8 13.32 440.22 8.1 108.3

COMMENTS

  1. The ratio of KSI to Killed declined by 25%, from an average of 14 for the period (1980 – 1994) to 10.4 in 2007.  There does not appear to be any explanation for that other than under-reporting serious casualties compared with previous years. In any event the change in the ratio is most marked after 2000, when the target of a 40% reduction on the 1994-1998 average by 2010 was set.
  2. Between 1980 and 2007 deaths per year declined by a factor of two and deaths per veh-km by a remarkable factor of 3.8 or by nearly 75%. Since 1965 reductions are by factors of 2.6 for deaths and 8.5 for deaths per veh-km, an astonishing change.

Table A2. Percentage Reductions – casualties

Year/period Duration
Years  		Casualties
Numbers (from Table A1) % change Change % per year (A)
Killed, K KSI Ratio KSI/K K KSI K KSI
Av 1964-68 13.5  7577.2 102777.2 13.56 -20.68  -17.43  -1.7018  -1.4090
1980 6010 84859 14.12
Av 1974-78 13.5  6652.8 87452.8 13.15 -21.58  -24.92  -1.7847  -2.1009 
1990 5217 65658 12.59
Av 1980-84 13.5  5767.4 81874.4 14.20 -37.61  -41.26  -3.4348  -3.8639 
1996 3598 48097 13.37
Av 1984-88 13.5  5265.2 73381.2 13.94 -35.25  -43.36  -3.1687  -4.1232 
2000 3409 41564 12.19
Av 1994-98 10.5  3577.8 47655.8 13.32 -17.74  -35.54  -1.8430  -4.0956 
2007 2943 30720 10.44
Decades                
1986 10  5385 74142 13.77 -33.18  -35.13  -3.9522  -4.2353
1996 3598 48097 13.37
1997 10 3599 46583 12.94 -18.23  -34.05  -1.9922 -4.0777
2007 2943 30720 10.44

(A) Compound rates

COMMENT

For the periods ending 1996 and 2000 the annual % decline is close to double that for the periods ending 1980, 1990 and 2007

The decline in deaths is not consistent with the decline in KSI for the period ending 2007, suggesting under-reporting of the seriously injured casualties compared with earlier decades.

Table A3. Percentage Reductions – per billion veh-km

Year/period Duration Casualties per bn Veh-km
Years Numbers (from Table A1) % change Change % per year (A)
  Killed, K KSI Ratio KSI/K K KSI K KSI
Av 1964-68 13.5  44.3 600.6 13.56 -50.08  -48.04  -5.0164  -4.7335 
1980 22.1 312.1 14.12
Av 1974-78 13.5  27.5 361.9 13.15 -53.87  -55.84  -5.5705  -5.8744 
1990 12.7 159.8 12.59
Av 1980-84 13.5  20.2 287.4 14.20 -59.71  -62.06  -6.5115  -6.9269 
1996 8.2 109.0 13.37
Av 1984-88 13.5  15.8 220.5 13.94 -53.87  -59.64  -5.5696  -6.5004 
2000 7.3 89.0 12.19
Av 1994-98 10.5  8.1 108.3 13.32 -29.41 -44.68  -3.2629  -5.4829 
2007 5.7 59.9 10.44
Decades                
1986 10  16.6 227.9 13.77 -50.73  -52.16  -6.8330 -7.1076
1996 8.2 109.0 13.37
1997 10  8.0 103.4 12.94 -28.22  -42.11  -3.2615 -5.3201
2007 5.7 59.9 10.44

 (A) Compound rates

COMMENT

As with Table A2 the decline in the deaths per veh-km has flattened off by close to a factor of two on the annualised basis.  That is not consistent with the KIS trend.

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© Transport Watch UK 2003